Here is a breakdown of my latest mock for the 2024 NFL Draft, which features the Chargers drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 5 after QBs are taken with the first four picks of the draft.
1. Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Williams is the best quarterback in this class and the best prospect at his position since Andrew Luck. This pick has been set in stone for months.
2. Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
I’m not as confident as the markets are that this pick is a done deal. Daniels is out to -550 as of Wednesday afternoon. At this time last year, Will Levis had just emerged as the favorite to go second overall.
"A known sharp group was playing Will Levis to go No. 2." – @BetMGM senior trader Cameron Drucker
— Patrick Everson (@PatrickE_Vegas) April 23, 2023
Levis shoots from +250 second choice to -145 favorite to be drafted No. 2 overall.
Much more in @VegasInsider #NFLDraft Odds & Action Report:https://t.co/ZvHhyPFQ5V
All reports have indicated that the rumors surrounding Washington drafting Daniels have not originated from inside the building. I still buy that most people around the league believe Daniels is the pick and will side with them in this mock, though, I wouldn’t put a curveball past the Commanders.
3. New England Patriots
Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
This is another spot where I’m taking the chalk pick but wouldn’t be surprised to see a low-probability outcome. The Patriots have reportedly taken calls about trading back. They could also have J.J. McCarthy ahead of Maye. In that case, they could move down a few spots and still land their quarterback of choice. While that is a possibility, I tend to think they will do the logical thing and draft the quarterback with an elite arm and prototypical size at No. 3.
4. Minnesota Vikings (trade with Arizona Cardinals)
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
I don’t buy that the Vikings acquired the 23rd overall pick at a premium just to get the Texans’ an extra second-round selection.
good trade from both perspectives: houston gets about a 3rd round pick in value gained and the vikings get the draft picks to move up for a quarterback https://t.co/4eseVdkNDy pic.twitter.com/06RIW5tCll
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) March 15, 2024
Though the trade obviously gave Houston something they needed, it did the same for Minnesota. I’m not sure the Giants are into McCarthy, but there’s no way for the Vikings to be certain of that and the Cardinals will tell Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah that they are getting calls for the pick (which they almost certainly are).
The Arizona Cardinals, sitting in a catbird seat at with the fourth pick, have told teams that have called (and as we said Monday, four teams have at least checked in with Arizona on moving up) that they don’t plan to execute a trade until they’re on the clock during the 8 p.m.…
— Mike Jurecki (@mikejurecki) April 23, 2024
It looks like we won’t know what Arizona is doing until they are on the clock, but as Jurecki notes later in this thread, the Cardinals aren’t just one player away. Trading down gives them more ammo in a class deep at premium positions.
5. Los Angeles Chargers
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Harrison is arguably the best player in the draft and the Chargers are currently fielding a starting trio of Quentin Johnston, Josh Palmer, and…Derius Davis. Simi Fehoko is the only other wideout on the team. For good measure, Jim Harbaugh watched his National Championship defense give up 12 catches for 238 yards and two scores to MHJ in their two meetings (Go Bucks!).
6. New York Giants
Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Having missed out at quarterback, the Giants can use this pick to give Daniel Jones a shot at sticking around beyond the 2024 season. If he fails, they cut ties next offseason and draft a quarterback to pair with Nabers.
7. Tennessee Titans
Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Alt is the favorite to go here and for good reason. The Titans trotted out one of the worst lines in the league last year and have only made marginal changes this offseason. They will rectify that by taking the top offensive lineman on the board.
8. Arizona Cardinals (trade with Chicago Bears)
Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
The Cardinals have 11 picks in this draft before it starts and likely acquire a 12th by trading back with Minnesota. GM Monti Ossenfort is no stranger to the two-step, having moved out of the third overall pick last year only to move up six spots from 12 to land offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr. This time around, they spend a few of their many mid-round picks to leap the Bears and Jets for Odunze. That fills a glaring need with a true WR1 and jumps two teams who would take Odunze in a heartbeat.
9. Chicago Bears
Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
With Odunze gone, the Bears are all but guaranteed to add to their trenches with this pick. They could go tackle, but Braxton Jones played well on the left side last year and 2023 first-round pick Darnell Wright has the starting right tackle job locked up. Instead, the Bears get the consensus EDGE1 of the class in Turner.
10. New York Jets
Taliese Fuaga, OL, Oregon State
Brock Bowers is an option here if the Jets want to bolster Aaron Rodgers’ weaponry, but keeping the 40-year-old passer safe has to be their top priority. Fuaga played right tackle in college but could move to guard in the NFL. The Jets have Morgan Moses at right tackle, meaning Fuaga can at least start his career at guard. The Jets could then move him to tackle as Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses age out.
11. Atlanta Falcons (trade with Arizona Cardinals)
Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
Latu is one of the biggest risers of the draft process. There are medical red flags and concerns with his size, but he has an elite production profile that features 13.5 sacks and 21.5 TFLs in his final season. Latu is also freakishly quick for an EDGE, regardless of his frame.
12. Denver Broncos
Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
The Broncos need a quarterback, but Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix look more like Day 2 players than top-16 picks. If Sean Payton wants a passer, he may still be able to land one of those two by moving up to the late first or early second round. Also in need of pass-catching talent, the Broncos would love to land Bowers and his elite YAC abilities with this pick.
13. Las Vegas Raiders
Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
The Raiders are in a similar position to the Broncos at quarterback. Just like Denver, trying to find that player later in the draft makes the most sense. Here, the Raiders shore up their secondary with an elite corner prospect. GM Tom Telesco never spent a first-round selection on a non-Power Five player in 11 years with the Chargers. He drafted one Group of Five player in the top 50 picks. That makes me lean toward Arnold over Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell with this pick.
14. New Orleans Saints
Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
With left tackle Trevor Penning failing to pan out after two years, right tackle Ryan Ramczyk’s availability in question because of knee issues, and left guard James Hurst retiring, the Saints are down horrific at offensive line. Fashanu could compete with Penning for the starting left tackle spot in camp, with the loser of the battle acting as injury insurance for Ramczyk on the right side.
15. Indianapolis Colts
Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Mitchell is one of the few picks that have remained unchanged in all three of my mock drafts. The Colts need help at corner and value athleticism highly.
Each of the @Colts' ten draft picks who were invited to the combine earned a NGS athleticism score of 75 or above, tied for the most in a team's draft class since 2003.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) April 29, 2023
Which other teams emphasized high-end athletes in the 2023 NFL Draft?
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Mitchell is a shut-down corner with top-notch measurables. Brian Thomas Jr. was the only other player I considered with this pick. The Colts can still address receiver on Day 2 of a draft loaded with wideout talent.
16. Seattle Seahawks
Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
The Seahawks may eventually want a replacement for Abraham Lucas at right tackle and Fautanu could be that guy in a year or two. For now, Fautanu can step in at left guard, the position some analysts believe will be his calling in the NFL. Fautanu has the added benefit of knowing Seattle’s offense which will be run by his college offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
The Jaguars took a clear downgrade at receiver when they lost Calvin Ridley in free agency, only to replace him with Gabe Davis. Thomas would perfectly fill the role left by Ridley. He’s an outside burner who can blow by defenders for deep shots along the sideline.
18. Cincinnati Bengals
J.C. Latham, OT, Alabama
Latham shouldn’t make it this far, but his experience being limited almost exclusively to right tackle could see some teams go in different directions. For the Bengals, that is a non-issue. They currently have Trent Brown slotted in at right tackle. Brown has been at his best on the left side of the line and has played one full season in the past five years. Relying on him to protect the oft-injured Joe Burrow shouldn’t be Cincy’s Plan A.
19. Los Angeles Rams
Byron Murphy, DT, Texas
Sean McVay loses the best defensive tackle in the league and the best defensive tackle of the following draft class falls into his lap? I’d bet the Rams would be more than happy to see Murphy make it this far down the board given their need for a pass-rusher, interior or EDGE.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Graham Barton, C, Duke
The Steelers have needs across their line. Barton played center as a freshman at Duke and then moved to left tackle for his final three seasons of college ball. Mike Tomlin recently described what it takes to move to center from another position at the NFL level. He mentioned a high football IQ and noted a background at center helps. Barton fits the type of player Pittsburgh wants at center or could play tackle for them.
21. Miami Dolphins
Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
The Dolphins’ defensive line was ravaged in free agency. Defensive tackle Christian Wilkins and EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel both left for big deals elsewhere. They also have Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb coming off season-ending injuries. Verse will help replenish some of their many losses along the line.
22. Philadelphia Eagles
Armarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Mims has fewer career snaps than some prospects see in one season. He’s going to need some time to develop. On the other hand, he’s a behemoth of a man who earned a 9.5 RAS at the combine. The Eagles build through the trenches and love betting on high-end athletes. Mims could sit behind right tackle Lane Johnson for a year while learning from Jeff Stoutland, one of the best offensive line coaches in the league.
23. Arizona Cardinals (trade with Minnesota Vikings)
Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
The Cardinals have a dreadful cornerback room led by free agent addition Sean Murphy-Bunting, who ranked as PFF’s No. 89 corner last year. He earned the highest grade of any of Arizona’s current outside corners. At 6-2, 185 pounds, Wiggins could use a few extra pounds on his frame. Even on the thinner side, Wiggins would start for the Cardinals right away.
24. Dallas Cowboys
Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
The Cowboys cut Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks’ advanced metrics all took a hit in 2023. He will be a free agent at the end of the upcoming season. Dallas needs a second receiver to complement CeeDee Lamb and Worthy’s world-class speed would bring a new element to the offense.
25. Green Bay Packers
Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
The Packers need a starting outside corner and a starting safety to pair with Xavier McKinney. DeJean, arguably the most versatile defensive back in the class, can play a part in the team’s effort to patch both holes.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jackson Powers-Johnson, G, Oregon
The Bucs have a strong tackle duo of Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke but next to no good options along the interior of their line. After inking Baker Mayfield to a three-year deal, they appear genuinely committed to him as the face of the franchise. The Bucs can continue to support him with JPJ, who can play any interior line role.
27. Arizona Cardinals
Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
Having filled their needs at receiver and corner, the Cardinals’ eyes turn toward their defensive line with their third and final pick of night one. Newton is arguably the best EDGE or defensive tackle on the board at this point. He totaled 7.5 sacks and 8.5 TFLs in his final season at Illinois.
28. Buffalo Bills
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
Mitchell’s effort and attitude have both been questioned throughout the draft process, but his upside has never been an issue.
Adonai Mitchell is a WR prospect in the 2024 draft class. He scored a 9.99 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 5 out of 3402 WR from 1987 to 2024. https://t.co/t32le05j0m pic.twitter.com/XLIlC28Xjp
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 17, 2024
He’s a freak athlete who can win on the outside and has the speed to push the ball downfield. Now without Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, that’s exactly what this offense needs.
29. Detroit Lions
Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
The Lions have the luxury of being one of the true “best player available” teams. They have needs, but none are glaring. McKinstry is the best corner on the board and possibly the best player. He would step into a starting role opposite Carlton Davis from day one.
30. Baltimore Ravens
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Veteran swing tackle Patrick Mekari is slotted in as the Ravens’ right tackle for 2024. He isn’t a bad option but is on an expiring deal. The Ravens could sit Guyton behind him for a year as he refines his technique before handing him the reins in 2025.
31. San Francisco 49ers
Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
San Francisco’s offense relies on scheming players open in space with a point guard quarterback delivering strikes. The offensive line needs to keep Brock Purdy clean for that to happen and he was pressured at the 15th-highest rate last year. The 49ers’ line wasn’t a disaster in 2023, but it needs to be improved if Kyle Shanahan wants to keep the points machine humming.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
Rashee Rice is reportedly set for a multi-game suspension and Marquise Brown is on a one-year deal. That’s on top of the fact that Travis Kelce will turn 35 in October and is seemingly on a load management routine in the regular season. The Chiefs need another weapon for Patrick Mahomes. McConkey has the route-running to win on underneath looks and the long speed to reignite Mahomes’ deep ball.