My rookie quarterback rankings are listed below along with tiers for the class. For a more detailed breakdown of each prospect, check out my Pre-Draft Rookie Rankings.
With five of the top six quarterbacks going to their “chalk” landing spots, there isn’t much to update from my pre-draft rankings. The Bears landing Rome Odunze put even more distance between Williams and the QB2 of the class. The trio of Odunze, DJ Moore, and Keenan Allen is the best supporting cast a No. 1 overall quarterback has had in a long time, if not ever.
I know there will be hype but what Caleb Williams is walking into is unprecedented. DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze is absurd. Not to mention Kmet. Here are the last 10 #1 QB picks and their top 3 receivers that yr. Mike Evans in 2015 is probably the only WR better than… pic.twitter.com/LURRMXzWeO
— Clevta (@Clevta) April 29, 2024
Williams is in a tier of his own among the quarterbacks.
For Drake Maye, going to New England was projected to be a nightmare. Before the draft, the Pats’ top receivers were Kendrick Bourne coming off a torn ACL and 5’8 Pop Douglas. After sticking at No. 3 to take Maye, the Patriots added Ja’Lynn Polk in the second round, Javon Baker in the fourth, and tight end Jaheim Bell in the seventh. Their efforts to support Maye earned them an A- in my draft grades and cemented Maye as the QB2 in my ranks.
New England reportedly had two offers (per @MikeReiss) to move out of 1.03. (making some guesses here in my part) https://t.co/rJEgE514qx pic.twitter.com/mDwYhnewUs
— TexansCap (@TexansCap) April 30, 2024
The Vikings and Giants were both willing to pay a premium to land Maye. The Giants were even unwilling to draft J.J. McCarthy after he made it to them at sixth overall. New England then valued him even higher than both of the draft hauls they were offered. NFL evaluators had a meaningfully higher grade on Maye than McCarthy. Keep that in mind when both are on the board in your rookie drafts.
The rushing production keeps Jayden Daniels comfortably ahead of McCarthy, but his shaky projection for NFL success makes him a riskier bet from a dynasty perspective.
Nix landed where everyone thought he would and was even reunited with his No. 1 receiver at Oregon, Troy Franklin. Only competing with Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham for the starting gig, Nix could make his first appearance before McCarthy or Maye. He isn’t in the same tier as either as a prospect, but the draft gave Nix a small boost.
Penix is the outlier among the first-round selections. He was the shocking pick of the first night, going eighth overall to the Atlanta Falcons. That will park him behind Kirk Cousins for at least two seasons. For practical cap purposes, Cousins can’t be cut next offseason. He remains a costly cut candidate during the final two seasons of his four-year deal. A home in Atlanta with Drake London, Bijan Robinson, and Kyle Pitts would have been a phenomenal landing spot for any quarterback if Cousins wasn’t standing in the way. A two-year tenure on the bench makes Penix a hard sell, even in Superflex leagues.
Spencer Rattler didn’t make the cut for my pre-draft rookie rankings but is worth a flier in Superflex leagues. Rattler was a high school phenom who flashed early in his career at Oklahoma, throwing for 3,031 yards and 28 scores in his first season as the starter. That was his only season with more than 20 passing touchdowns. He was benched for Caleb Williams a year later and transferred to South Carolina for two seasons of middling production and efficiency metrics. He also came in at 6’/211 at the combine and bombed the drills en route to a 4.0 RAS.
I’ve been seeing a lot of Spencer Rattler hype on my feed, and for good reason.
— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) April 15, 2024
A cut-up of his most ridiculous throws, for your viewing pleasure: pic.twitter.com/4tKGyhl77P
Rattler makes spectacular throws on tape at a high clip, but his poor plays outweighed the good ones in college. If Derek Carr struggles, Rattler could make some starts late in his rookie season, putting him on the Superflex radar.