How every first-round pick wins (and loses) your fantasy football league

Christian McCaffrey

Boom Scenario

McCaffrey was the fourth player off the board in drafts last year and the third-highest advance rate in Underdog drafts. He ranked second in the league in NFL Next Gen’s rush yards over expected per carry. CMC was 70 yards over expected ahead of the next running back. He ranked ninth in yards per route run and second in Pro Football Focus’s receiving grade. Ladanian Tomlinson is the only other FLEX player with three seasons of 24 PPR points per game (min. 10 games) since 2000. McCaffrey is arguably the greatest fantasy asset of all time. If he does what he did last year, he’s the best pick in the first round once again.

Bust Scenario

Injuries will not be included in any of the bust scenarios. His efficiency and volume are simply so much better than every other running back and wide receiver that you can’t poke a single hole in his profile. I’ll try though. Here are a few dumb scenarios that aren’t likely but would hurt McCaffrey.

Like Travis Kelce before him, McCaffrey’s workload is managed throughout the season. Elijah Mitchell and fourth-round rookie Isaac Guerendo see more work than expected. McCaffrey goes from 21 touches per game to 16. He is a solid pick but multiple first-round receivers pass him by.

The 49ers are a powerhouse offense and the defense is humming. They are 14-1 heading into Week 17. With the No. 1 seed already secured, the 49ers starters play one quarter of football before getting the day off. McCaffrey led millions of fantasy teams to the title game before abandoning managers when they needed him most.

The league figures out Brock Purdy. Mr. Irrelevant looks like late-stage Jimmy Garoppolo. He remains efficient but is nowhere near setting records for adjusted yards per attempt, EPA per play, and other nerd metrics. The San Francisco offense runs fewer plays, is less efficient, and most importantly, CMC’s touchdown total plummets to 11.

CeeDee Lamb

Boom Scenario:

Like McCaffrey, Lamb just needs to hold steady. He led the league with 135 catches and finished second in yards at 1,749. Lamb was taken as the 12th pick on average last year and posted a 34.6 percent advance rate in Underdog drafts. That number will remain near the top of the league even at the cost of an early first-round pick.

There’s even some room for his fantasy output to improve through touchdown production. PFF’s expected touchdowns model had him at 13.9 scores while he only found paydirt a dozen times. His red zone and end zone target shares both ranked outside of the top-12 pass-catchers in the league as well, giving him another path to more scores.

Bust Scenario:

The Cowboys’ house of cards collapses. As it turns out, having Brandin Cooks hot off a season with 1.2 yards per route and Jalen Tolbert as your WR2/3 doesn’t make for a good offense. Neither does giving Ezekiel Elliott the rock 300 times. The offense sputters as defenses realize they only need to slow Lamb to shut down Dallas. Lamb finishes the year as the WR8. Fantasy managers around the world go broke.

Tyreek Hill

Boom Scenario:

Like the two players before him, Hill just has to do what he did last year and he will be a great pick. But there’s even more room for improvement. Hill was on pace for 133 catches, 2,155 yards, and 17 scores through two months. He was averaging a mind-bending 4.2 yards per route run before Week 9. Then the league adjusted Mike McDaniel’s offense and the Dolphins’ schedule got harder. In turn, everyone’s numbers fell (we’ll get to that). If McDaniel can forge an offense that is more resilient over the course of an entire season, Hill could break every record in the books.

Bust Scenario:

Tua Tagovailoa was averaging 302 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per week through eight games. He was the QB4 in EPA per play. His numbers then fell to 245 yards and 1.2 scores per game from Week 9 onward. He was the QB15 in EPA per play over this stretch. We saw a similar story play out two years ago. This video from The Ringer’s Benjamin Solak does a phenomenal job detailing how the Chargers shut down Miami’s offense late in the 2022 season.

In 2023, Hill’s stats fell from 127 yards and one touchdown per game to 98 yards and .6 touchdowns per game over the second half of the season. He was still a top-notch receiver despite Tua’s downturn, but he wasn’t a game-breaker. When you’re picking in the top five of a fantasy draft, you need someone who changes the landscape of the game. In this scenario, Mike McDaniel’s offense is figured out early in the season. Hill is still a WR1, but players like Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Puka Nacua soar past him in the fantasy rankings while the Tua discourse reaches critical mass.

Ja’Marr Chase

Boom Scenario:

Chase’s fantasy stardom was obscured by a strange and disjointed season from Joe Burrow last year. His quarterback suffered a calf injury before the season and didn’t look like himself for the first month. Then, for six beautiful weeks, Chase and Burrow were the best duo in football. Burrow pushed for 300 yards per game while Chase averaged eight catches for 107 yards and one touchdown weekly. He posted 3.05 yards per route run over this stretch. Then, in Week 11, Burrow suffered a season-ending thumb injury. We’ve seen Chase be a superstar in the past and we got glimpses of that in 2023. It’s not hard to imagine him putting it all together and leading the position in scoring this year.

Bust Scenario:

Through five picks, I don’t see anyone as fraught with risk. These are all superstar talents in great scenarios. Chase is no different. Like the players before him, his path to failure is primarily through a good season in a range where you need a great season. Chase’s numbers have been strong over the past two years but far from the earth-shattering marks he debuted with as a rookie. Chase averaged 2.5 YPRR as a rookie on the back of an elite YAC profile. Despite having a 13.6 aDOT, Chase was adding 8.1 yards after each reception. Over the past two seasons, his aDOT is down to 9.8 but he’s also offering far less after the catch. His YPRR has fallen to 2.02 (still a great number). Chase’s tumbling target depth is part of a broader trend across the league that has hit no one harder than Joe Burrow

His aDOT has gone down every year and NFL defenses have no interest in letting him fire off deep shots to Chase. He has complied with their request and is now one of the most conservative throwers against two-high looks. Chase can still return top-five fantasy numbers in this context, but he may not be able to pass the likes of Lamb and Hill en route to a league-winning season without more explosive plays.

Justin Jefferson

Boom Scenario:

He’s Justin Jefferson. There isn’t much to explain. For those worried about the quarterback play, he was still a superstar after Kirk Cousins went down.

Jefferson’s pace in games without Cousins would have been good for the WR5 by PPR points per game. Head coach Kevin O’Connell didn’t back down from the challenge as a play-caller either. The Vikings ranked fifth in neutral situation pace and had a positive pass rate over expected from Week 9 onward.

Bust Scenario:

Sam Darnold is who we thought he was. His image rehabilitation as a backup under Kyle Shanahan doesn’t change much and he struggles out of the gate. From 2018 to 2021, 33 quarterbacks recorded at least 1,000 dropbacks. Darnold ranked 33rd in EPA per play and 32nd in CPOE. That’s the Darnold we get in Minnesota. Still, Kevin O’Connell is reluctant to turn to J.J. McCarthy, who has taken his lumps in practice and isn’t ready for the big stage. McCarthy takes over after the team’s mini-bye heading into Week 9 and things go from bad to worse. Averaging 6.2 yards per attempt, McCarthy brings the sputtering offense to a standstill. As great as he is, Jefferson can’t overcome his team’s dreadful quarterback play.

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Boom Scenario:

St. Brown has gotten better in every year of his career. His yardage and receptions numbers have gone up in every season. Despite this, his efficiency numbers are also on the rise. His career arc looks extremely similar to that of Michael Thomas. The former Saint kept earning targets while also improving his play. At some point, his coach and quarterbacks decided to find out just how much of the offense could run through a single player. In 2019, Thomas set the single-season receptions record at 149. Drew Brees was the QB3 in EPA per play. St. Brown could follow in Thomas’s footsteps as the sun (god) which his offense revolves around.

Bust Scenario:

St. Brown’s floor is as high as it gets. The worst-case scenario for him likely involves a player in the middle of the first round breaking fantasy. If he does take a step back, it won’t be because of his own talent. It could come from an increase in talent around him. Last year, St. Brown was competing with Jameson Williams coming off a suspension and a rookie tight end for targets. He ranked fifth in target share at 30.3 percent. Now he’s competing with Williams following the first normal offseason of his career and Sam LaPorta coming off one of the best rookie tight end seasons ever. St. Brown could be an underwhelming fantasy pick if his target share falls by a few points.

Bijan Robinson

Boom Scenario:

Head coach Raheem Morris has talked up Bijan Robinson ad nauseam this offseason. When rubber hits the road, Morris is a man of his word.

Robinson dusts Tyler Allgeier and dominates the backfield touches. If you think the Todd Gurley comparisons are overblown now, just wait until we get to the fantasy playoffs. Like Gurley in McVay’s system before him, Robinson is a menace at the goal line and heavily involved through the air. Gurley caught 123 passes for 1,368 yards and 10 scores in his two best seasons with the Rams. He scored a total of 40 times in 2017 and 2018 combined.

The Falcons are projected for one of the biggest offensive turnarounds in 2024 and have a top-10 offensive line according to PFF. Robinson is in pole position to take advantage of the perfect storm of circumstances a year after playing on one of the most inept offenses in the league.

Bust Scenario:

As is the case with most running backs, the downside scenario involves another player stealing work. For Robinson, that player is Allgeier. Robinson ranked worse than Allgeier in Next Gen’s success rate as a rookie. He also trailed Allgeier in first-down rate versus stacked boxes. Most importantly, Allgeier doubled up Robinson on carries inside the five. If banking on a 36-year-old Kirk Cousins coming off a torn Achilles doesn’t result in a windfall of points and the touchdown-scoring opportunities are given to Allgeier, Robinson could have a great season by scrimmage yards but fall flat based on a lack of touchdowns.

Breece Hall

Boom Scenario:

The Jets ranked 27th in PFF’s run blocking grade as a team last year and 32nd in EPA per dropback. Because the offense was so bad, the Jets also ranked last in the NFL in backfield carries inside the five. Opposing defenses teed off on a decimated offensive line because they didn’t have to respect the pass and Hall was never given the chance to score easy touchdowns. He finished as the RB4 despite all of this. The Jets are now projected to make a Herculean turnaround under Aaron Rodgers.

Vegas has them improving by over nine points per game. A better passing attack and an improved line will give him far more chances at the goal line and more chances for long runs.

Bust Scenario:

The Jets are preparing to start a 40-year-old quarterback coming off a torn Achilles’ who already showed signs of a steep decline in 2022. He ranked 21st in EPA per dropback the last time we saw him compared to first in the league in 2021.

Hall’s value in 2023 was also buoyed by absurd receiving volume. He was targeted 95 times. Aaron Jones peaked at 72 targets under Rodgers. It was the only time in Rodgers’ 15 years as the Packers starter that his running back saw more than 70 targets.

The Jets also drafted two running backs with bruising, physical playstyles in Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis. They could use either of the backs—likely Allen—to reduce Hall’s workload. Hall remains a fine pick at cost because all of these outcomes are unlikely, but in full PPR, I see A.J. Brown and Puka Nacua as better bets.

A.J. Brown

Boom Scenario:

Brown gave us a taste of a historic season over the first half of his 2023 campaign. He averaged 7.4 receptions for 111.7 yards and .7 scores per game. This was punctuated by a historic stretch of six 125-yard games in a row. His pace would have been good for 127 grabs, 1,898 yards, and 11 scores over a full season.

Philly’s offense was firing on all cylinders and the team had legitimate aspirations of avenging their Super Bowl loss. Jalen Hurts then suffered a knee injury and the team flamed out with a Wild Card loss to the Bucs. It shouldn’t be hard for the team to rebound in 2024 if Hurts’s knee was the only reason for this falloff, then.

Bust Scenario:

If the Eagles’ offense got worse because defenses started figuring Hurts out, that’s a major issue for everyone involved. It’s impossible to say how much of their slump was related to his injury, but it wasn’t just the team-wide efficiency or volume that dipped. Brown’s usage also changed dramatically over the second half of the season. He went from a 32 percent target share and a 48 percent air yards share through 10 weeks to a 27 percent target share and 33 percent of the air yards in the final two months of the season. His share of the first-read targets also fell by seven percent. After the season, the Eagles signed Devonta Smith to a three-year, $75 million contract extension. It wouldn’t be stunning for the team to continue distributing the receiver targets more evenly heading into 2024. That, coupled with the offense failing to soar quite as high as it did last September and October, would be enough to keep Brown at the back of the WR1 rankings.

Puka Nacua

Boom Scenario:

Nacua gave us the greatest rookie season of all time in 2023. His 1,486 yards and 105 receptions both went down as the most ever for a first-year player. By yardage, the next four players on the list in the past 50 years are:

• Ja’Marr Chase
• Justin Jefferson
• Anquan Bolden
• Randy Moss

Elite production at a young age is a strong indicator of superstar potential. Nacua also posted an elite YPRR of 2.75 including his playoff explosion of 181 yards on nine grabs. Cooper Kupp, his only competition for targets, is coming off a career-low YPRR of 1.86. Like Jefferson before him, it’s not hard to see Nacua translating his phenomenal rookie season into an even better encore.

Bust Scenario:

Nacua’s volume stats took a notable hit when both he and Kupp were healthy.

Kupp also saw eight more first-read targets than Nacua in those games. The rookie was targeted on 25 percent of his routes compared to 23 percent for Kupp. They were a true 1A and 1B situation in the dozen games they shared the field. All of the first-round wideouts are true alpha receivers. If Nacua can’t separate himself from his teammate to dominate the Rams’ targets, it will be nearly impossible for him to pay off his top-12 cost.

Garrett Wilson

Boom Scenario:

Wilson is Aaron Rodgers’ new Davante Adams. He logged an outstanding 25 percent target share as a rookie and upped that to 30 percent in his second season. Wilson just led the NFL in air yards share at 45 percent. Adams posted a target share of 33 percent and an air yards share of 38 percent in his final two seasons with Rodgers. The counting stats haven’t been there for Wilson yet, but that’s excusable given the mess of quarterbacks his team has trotted out. With a four-time MVP on the sticks, this is the year for Wilson to put it all together.

Bust Scenario:

On top of the Rodgers-based concern previously mentioned under Hall, are we sure Garrett Wilson is great? We know he is good, but, after two years, can he ascend to superstar status? The answer is probably yes. However, this is what the first round looks like by yards per route run.

There are other minor holes to poke in Wilson’s game as well. He hasn’t shown much after the catch since entering the league, ranking 68th and 29th in YAC per reception in the past two years. ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics also have him as a pedestrian receiver with the ball in his hands. Being Amari Cooper (very good over a long period of time but never great) is still a realistic outcome for Wilson.

Jahmyr Gibbs

Boom Scenario:

Gibbs hits it big by kicking David Montgomery to the curb. Per RotoViz, the Lions’ backfield was the second-most valuable in the league by total expected points. They ran the ball often and threw to their running backs plenty, but the big differentiator for the backfield was the goal line opportunities. No team ran the ball with their running backs inside the five more than Detroit last year. Gibbs showed signs of life as a short-yardage back over the second half of the season. He earned one carry inside the five in his first six games. That number jumped to 10 over the final nine weeks of the regular season, all of which David Montgomery was active for. For Gibbs to win leagues, he needs to cement himself as a top-tier pass-catcher while also pushing Montgomery for touches near the end zone.

Bust Scenario:

Though Gibbs closed out the regular season pushing Montgomery for the high-value touches, things tilted away from him in the postseason. The veteran out-carried him 8-0 inside the five in the playoffs. To the Lions’ credit, that’s the right way to use both backs. Gibbs had a disastrous success rate of 33.7 percent compared to 44.2 percent for Montgomery. Gibbs looks like the lightning to Montgomery’s deserved thunder.

Gibbs entered the league with difference-making potential through the air but didn’t make good on that ceiling as a rookie. He ranked 31st in yards per route run and 29th in PFF receiving grade. Gibbs was an inconsistent runner who didn’t thrive as a receiver and didn’t hold a meaningful role at the goal line. Those things could change, but I’m not sure we want to bet on that happening at the cost of the final pick in the first round. I don’t mind mixing in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Drake London over Gibbs if you pull the 12th pick multiple times.