NFL Rookie Dynasty Rankings 2024: Wide Receiver, Part One

Here is a breakdown of my top nine rookie receivers who could hear their name called in Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft.

1. Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

This won’t be the longest breakdown because there’s not much to say on MHJ. He’s nearly the perfect prospect. Harrison Jr. broke out as a sophomore with a 33 percent dominator rating and over three yards per team pass attempt. He also averaged 3.2 yards per route run in his second season. His junior season was even better. MHJ’s 67/1,211/14 receiving line was slightly worse, but it was exclusively the product of losing C.J. Stroud. Harrison’s dominator ballooned to 45 percent and he averaged 3.4 yards per route run.

The knocks on Harrison’s game are so minor they hardly exist. He is just good after the catch, averaging 5.1 YAC per reception during his career. MHJ is fast, but won’t blow by corners with straight-line speed alone. He didn’t test at the combine so we don’t have an exact number on his 40-yard time.

Harrison passed the eye test from scouts and the analytics test in the spreadsheets. He’s going to be taken in the first five picks of the draft and should end up in a good landing spot. MHJ can already be treated as a dynasty WR1.

2. Malik Nabers, LSU

Another elite prospect, Nabers topped 1,000 yards as a sophomore and recorded a true breakout (30 percent dominator rating) in his third and final season with an 89/1,569/14 line. Nabers’ blazing top-end speed and change of direction allow him to win on both short catches with extra YAC and deep balls. He trailed only his teammate Brian Thomas and Rome Odunze in yards on deep throws (20+ aDOT) last year. Nabers also ranked fifth in the country in yards gained on throws 1-9 yards downfield.

Nabers didn’t test at the combine but confirmed his speed and burst with a 4.38 40-yard dash and jumps above the 90th percentile at LSU’s Pro Day. One of the only notable issues with Nabers is his svelte frame. He measured at 6-0, 199 pounds. Nabers didn’t break out until his third season and doesn’t have quite the perfect scouting reviews like MHJ does, but those are nitpicks at most. Nabers remains an outstanding prospect and is also a dynasty WR1, though he sits at the back of that group while Harrison is in the top half.

3. Rome Odunze, Washington

The third and final, “He would be WR1 in another class”, Odunze can hold a second-year breakout over Nabers with a 41/415/4 line on a weak Huskies offense in 2021. On the downside, Odunze isn’t leaving college until after his fourth season, unlike MHJ and Nabers. Odunze also failed to reach three yards per team pass attempt or three yards per route run in a season.

While he’s not the best receiver in this class, Odunze is still a great prospect in his own right. He led the country in receiving yards with 1,640 yards and also finished top 10 in catches and touchdowns. Odunze is a big-bodied receiver who creates separation with ease but can also win more than his fair share of jump balls. Pro Football Focus charted him with a 75 percent catch rate on 28 contested targets in 2023. Odunze also nuked the combine with alpha receiver size and elite drills.

He even stayed on the field after testing was over just to improve his three-cone time. From everything you can find on Odunze, he has an unparalleled work ethic that NFL coaches are going to love. I have each of the top three receivers in a tier of their own and the biggest gap is between Odunze and the next set of wideouts.

4. Brian Thomas Jr., LSU

Thomas begins the group of players with elite potential but clear blemishes on their profile via film or stats. He was a one-year wonder at LSU, but the breakout was incredible. Thomas led the country with 17 receiving touchdowns in 2023. He also totaled 1,177 yards and 68 receptions. Thomas peaked at 2.6 YPRR and Pro Football Focus graded him as their 99th-overall receiver in the FBS in his final season.

Thomas ran a limited route tree in college, seeing most of his deep targets on simple go routes and the vast majority of his short throws came on hitches. Scouts have pointed out a lack of nuance and footwork in his routes, partially because of his limited usage. Thomas leaned on his absurd athleticism in college and backed it up at the combine with a 4.33 40 at 6-3, 209 pounds. If Thomas doesn’t polish his game in the NFL, he will still be a strong big-play threat who offers plenty of spike weeks. If he does develop as a receiver, Thomas will have WR1 potential.

5. Adonai Mitchell, Texas

Mitchell began his career at Georgia and made some splash plays as a freshman, racking up 426 yards and four touchdowns on 29 grabs. He didn’t see the field much as a sophomore because of an injury and transferred to Texas for a third and final season of college ball. Mitchell immediately broke out while playing alongside multiple other NFL pass-catchers. He caught 55 balls for 845 yards and 11 touchdowns while earning a 32 percent dominator.

Despite recording a true breakout season, Mitchell left the 2023 season with plenty of red flags. He averaged a dreadful 1.7 YPRR and 3.2 YAC per catch. In his defense, Mitchell was routinely on the receiving end of poorly thrown passes.

On the other hand, his red flags are even more glaring on film. Mitchell simply isn’t giving full effort on every play, especially when he’s not early in the read progression. Given his size and athleticism (6-2, 205 pounds with a 9.99 RAS), Mitchell should also be better after the catch and as a run blocker. The highs are absurdly high with Mitchell and they were also far too infrequent for a player of his caliber. He undoubtedly has the widest range of outcomes in the class.

6. Xavier Worthy, Texas

One of the few true freshman breakouts of this class, Worthy racked up 981 yards and 12 scores while averaging 2.6 YPRR and playing primarily as an outside receiver. Worthy’s numbers would fall over the next two seasons and he finished his career playing in the slot more often and running more shallow routes. He posted a 75/1,014/5 line in his final season. Worthy had a lower dominator rating and averaged fewer yards per route run than his freshman campaign.

Worthy famously broke the 40-yard dash record with a 4.21 time at the combine, but he also measured at 5-11, 165 pounds. That size all but confirms what scouts saw on tape. Worthy isn’t going to beat press coverage at a high rate and may struggle to win hand fights against physical corners at the next level. His success was highly sensitive to his situation in college and the same may be true in the NFL. Still, if things break in his favor during the draft, Worthy could be an instant boom/bust WR3.

7. Troy Franklin, Oregon

Franklin made a name for himself as a speedster in 2022 with 891 yards and nine scores. He took his game to another level in 2023, accounting for 1,383 yards and 14 touchdowns with a 31 percent dominator. Franklin averaged 3.3 YPRR and 2.9 yards per team pass attempt. He looks surprisingly similar to Brian Thomas in the spreadsheets and had a good shot at going to the first round before the combine, where he weighed in at 176 pounds and ran an underwhelming 4.41. This wasn’t the result fantasy managers wanted to see for a player whose game is built on downfield speed.

While this time proved he was more of a good athlete and not a true burner, Franklin’s solid speed combined with strong burst numbers gave him a 9.02 at 6-2, 176 pounds. He doesn’t have the frame of an X receiver but could be a consistent chunk-play earner at the next level. NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein compared him to Chris Olave. That’s an optimistic outcome that perfectly describes how Franklin will win at the next level if he hits.

8. Ladd McConkey, Georgia

McConkey never recorded a true breakout season at Georgia but averaged a respectable 2.3 YPRR in his first two seasons of action. Then, in his final season, he exploded for 3.3 YPRR. Despite the efficiency, McConkey was not a full-time player in 2023 and also missed a few games because of an injury. He ended the year with a 478 and two scores.

McConkey is a great route-runner who plays primarily on the outside and has elite athleticism.

Though he’s not an X receiver, McConkey should excel as both a Z and a slot in the NFL. Scouts love his game and his efficiency suggests he could have been a star in college with more reps. I’m willing to overlook the lack of a breakout if he makes it into the top 40 picks, which seems likely.

9. Keon Coleman, Florida State

One of the most controversial prospects of the 2024 class, Coleman is an odd mix of contested-catch concerns and big-play potential. In his final season, over half of Coleman’s 10+ aDOT targets were contested. He reeled in just a third of those looks. Coleman doesn’t have the speed or nuance to earn separation downfield. However, he showed some special YAC production for his enormous size, averaging 6.3 YAC per catch at 6-3, 213 pounds. Coleman even returned punts in his final year. He averaged 12 yards per return and had the third-most return yards in the country.

There are plenty of inconsistencies in Coleman’s game. He has the frame of a jump-ball artist but doesn’t excel in that area. Coleman ran a 4.61 40 at the combine but recorded the fastest top speed in the gauntlet and had similar marks across various other GPS-tracked drills.

Many scouts consider him a big-slot candidate despite him running less than a fifth of his routes from the slot in college. All of these contradictions make it hard to know how (if) his skills will translate to the NFL game. Even with that massive concern, Coleman broke out alongside other NFL pass-catchers as a junior and has intangibles that are hard to find in any draft class.